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A Wartime Presidency, on Two Fronts

Anthony H. Cordesman is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Hi is often called in as an expert commentator on TV and radio.

In an extensive analysis - in a piece in the NY Times, here - on what confronts President-elect Obama on assuming office with regard to Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the prognosis is far from a happy one.

"The Afghan and Pakistani economies have effectively collapsed, and Afghans face food shortages this winter. Monthly spending on operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan will likely rise to as much as $5 billion, from around $2 billion today, or we will face defeat.

Even if the United States fully withdraws from Iraq in 2011, as Mr. Obama and the Iraqi government say they would like, we will remain on something very like a war footing there throughout the next presidency. While the combat burden on our forces will decline, withdrawal will be as costly as fighting. It will take large amounts of luck (and patient American prodding) for the Iraqi government to move toward real political accommodation while avoiding new explosions of ethnic and sectarian violence.

Even with progress on those fronts, we will have to withdraw while still helping to win a war, contain internal violence, limit Iranian influence and counter its nuclear program, create effective Iraqi security forces, and help Iraq improve its governance. Not a full war perhaps, but at least a quarter war in terms of continuing strains on our military and budget.

Moreover, the best case for the Iraq war means coming to grips with the legacy of the worst secretary of defense in American history, Donald Rumsfeld. In spite of recent progress under Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Mr. Rumsfeld’s inability to manage any key aspect of defense modernization has left the Obama administration a legacy of unfunded and expensive new trade-offs between replacing combat-worn equipment, repairing and rehabilitating huge amounts of weapons and equipment, and supplying our forces with new, improved equipment.

At best, President Obama will have to conduct the equivalent of one-and-a-quarter wars throughout his first term. At worst? The outside chance of war with Iran as well."

Interestingly, the NY Times also carries a piece by Donald Rumsfeld who is so upbeat about the success of the surge in Iraq that one must wonder whether he is on something. Another contributor, Frederick Kagan, in the NY Times' pieces under the heading "Transitions" goes so far as to suggest that as Iraq becomes more independent, it will still share America's goals. Oh yeah?

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