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World confronts a choice between chaos and order

Times are a'changing.......

FT.coms columnist Philip Stevens in "World confronts a choice between chaos and order" writes on a new US National Intelligence Council's Report on the position of the US in the future - and what it means in practical terms as Obama steps up to the plate as the newly elected president of America.

"It seems only yesterday that scarcity was the story. Energy and commodity prices were heading into the stratosphere. The oil was running out, food shortages loomed, Russia was resurgent and China was marching into Africa amid a scramble for dwindling resources.

Now? Prices everywhere are falling as recession bites. Investment banks have disappeared; and the global credit system is on life-support. The big threat is deflation rather than inflation. The oil price has slumped, wiping the smirk from authoritarian leaders such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez.

When Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination for the presidency he expected Iraq and healthcare would be the priorities of his presidency. No one told him the banks were facing bankruptcy and the US an economic shock as severe as any since the Great Crash.

The scale and speed of this turnround offers a stiff warning of the perils of seeking to peer beyond the present. Think back also to all that stuff a few years ago about the unipolar moment and the new American imperium. The mistake always is to project the here-and-now into an indefinite future. History rarely travels in straight lines.

So what should the president-elect make of the hefty tome that has landed on his desk courtesy of the cleverest minds at the US National Intelligence Council? After all, Global Trends 2025*, the NIC’s four-yearly exercise in crystal ball-gazing, tries to map the contours of the world more than 15 years hence.

The answer is that Mr Obama would do well to read it closely: not because he gets a top-secret version denied to the rest of us; nor because the authors have discovered the philosopher’s stone of forecasting, but because understanding the forces driving political and economic change should be the starting point for his decisions as president.

The NIC does not pretend to have all the answers. Its stated purpose is to explore the forces and factors driving events rather than to predict the destination. The authors rightly eschew the determinism peddled by the snake oil salesmen of futurology. The world may be travelling in this or that direction now, but that does not mean the trajectory is preordained.

One of the report’s important messages is that political leaders, and Mr Obama most particularly, have the capacity to chart alternative paths. Another – this one implicit – is that the decisions taken in the White House during the next four or eight years will be critical.

At first glance, the core conclusion – that the world is witnessing the emergence of a new multipolar system – seems unremarkable. But it matters that the president-elect is being told by his foremost intelligence analysts that the US faces relative decline. There are plenty of people in Washington who dismiss such a prospect as the malevolent thinking of woolly-headed Europeans; the more so, perhaps, when France’s Nicolas Sarkozy keeps trumpeting it.

In the NIC’s view, the rise of China, India and the rest will mean that by 2025 the US will be “one [my emphasis] of a number of important actors on the world stage, albeit still the most powerful”. For more than 200 years, even when challenged, the US has been a rising power. The adjustment will not be easy."

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